Fall is officially upon us and the Brewers are red hot. Winners of 14 of their last 19 games, including their last six series, the Brewers appear to be peaking at the absolute perfect time. With just 18 games remaining in the regular season, the Brewers own the top spot in the Wild Card standings by 2.5 games, and have a 3.5 game cushion for a postseason spot.
Back in June, which feels like an eternity ago, I made a list of the ten things I felt needed to happen for the Brewers to make the postseason. I predicted that if six of those ten things were to occur, the Brewers would find themselves playing October baseball for the first time since 2011. This week, I’m going to check in on those predictions (some of which, in hindsight, were quite dumb).
1. Corey Knebel ends the season with more than 50 appearances.
This one is going to be close – Knebel currently sits at 44 appearances for the year. The thought process, though, was solid – if Knebel didn’t figure his “you know what” out, the Brewers would suffer, and he simply wouldn’t play. While it took a short stay in AAA to turn things around, Knebel suddenly looks like an All-Star again, and is finding success in high-leverage situations. His fastball velocity is back up to 97-98 MPH, and he appears to have rediscovered his confidence in the curveball. If Knebel can continue to stay hot, watch out for this team in October.
2. Freddy Peralta is optioned to AAA Colorado Springs no more than once the rest of the season.
Seems like a strange prediction, but we knew Peralta would be optioned before the All-Star break. The thinking here was that Peralta would only hold on to his spot in the rotation after the All-Star break if he continued to play lights out.
He didn’t. Whether it was fatigue, batters starting to figure out the book on Peralta, or both, Freddy struggled in August and was sent down mid-month, ending his stint in the starting rotation for 2018. Freddy showed signs of promise this season and got some big wins for the Crew – he’ll almost certainly compete for a spot in the rotation next Spring.
3. Ryan Braun hits above .300 from this point forward (June 25, 2018).
This one was simple: the Brewers needed Ryan Braun to play better. He was batting .237 on June 25th, 2018. Since then, he’s gone 44 for 158, a clip of .278. He’s certainly playing better, but not quite at the level he was once known for playing at, say, when he was pounding gummies. Still, his veteran presence and flare for the dramatics will hopefully come in handy as the Brewers continue their postseason push.
4. Jimmy Nelson pitches at least twice in August.
Didn’t happen. Was never going to happen. If Nelson can come back healthy in 2018, the Brewers could be very dangerous.
5. Jesus Aguilar makes the All-Star Game.
This happened, albeit via the final vote process. While Aguilar has since cooled off a bit, he’s continued to come in clutch on a number of occasions during the second half, and has managed to avoid falling into multi-week slumps. With Eric Thames struggling mightily, Aguilar’s breakout year could not have come at a better time for the Brewers, who now appear to have found their every day first baseman.
6. Eric Sogard is DFA’d before the All-Star Break.
The Brewers needed to part ways with Sogard and give others in their system a shot, and they did. This happened.
7. Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich avoid the DL after August 1st.
So far so good on this, and boy has it been important for the Brewers. Yelich is a legit MVP candidate, and Cain ranks second among NL leadoff hitters in OBP. Safe to say, the acquisitions of Yelich and Cain will go down as David Stearns shining moment as GM should the Brewers make a deep run this postseason.
8. One of the Brewers current starters moves to the bullpen, and posts a sub 1.50 ERA through the remainder of the season.
This hasn’t happened yet, and even if it does, it’s not going to happen the way I was thinking it would. The thinking here was that Stearns would go out and get an ace at the deadline, forcing one of their starters to convert to a high leverage bullpen pitcher. While Junior Guerra and Freddy Peralta are now in the bullpen, and could theoretically post sub 1.50 ERAs, it’s unlikely they’ll be used in critical situations. Instead of looking for help from his starters, David Stearns went out and got Joakim Soria and Xavier Cedeño to bolster the pen, who desperately needed it when Matt Alpers, Taylor Williams, and Dan Jennings all started to stumble.
9. The Brewers go 25-13 the rest of the way against teams currently under .500.
This one is still in play, but just barely. Through 24 of these games, the Brewers are 13-13, largely because of the five game sweep at the hands of the Pirates before the All-Star Break. They’d have to sweep the Tigers and the Reds, and the Pirates twice to go 25-13 in these games, so I’m going to call this a miss.
While you can look at this as a failure, the upside here is that the Brewers are beating good teams, like the Cubs, which I will never ever complain about.
10. The Brewers trade at least four of the following prospects: Freddy Peralta, Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Brett Phillips, Corey Ray, Tristen Lutz.
This didn’t happen, and it’s looking like a better move every day. The thinking here was that it would take many of the aforementioned prospects to bring an ace to Milwaukee, but it never happened. There really were no aces available, at least not at a price David Stearns was willing to pay. Brett Phillips is gone, but the other five remain in the Brewers system, setting the Brewers up well for next year and beyond. And while they didn’t get their “ace”, Stearns made an August move to bring Gio Gonzales to Milwaukee, and it didn’t cost the Brewers a top prospect. If the Brewers make the postseason, David Stearns deserves a TON of credit for improving his team without selling the farm, something he insisted he would strive to do from day one as GM.
Summary:
- Happened: 2
- Didn’t Happen: 4
- Still in play: 4