Tomorrow, the Milwaukee Brewers will return to Miller Park to begin a 10-game home stand that will take them through Memorial Day, or as I like to call it: the first real milestone in the MLB season. They enter this home stand in first place in the NL Central, tied with the Atlanta Braves for the most wins in the National League with 28, and fresh off a 7-3 road trip that featured series wins against three teams that made the postseason last October. No matter how you spin it, the Brewers are rolling.
I’ve been criticized in the past for being overly optimistic about the Brewers, something I resent. Years one and two of the rebuild featured nothing but “trust the process” comments amidst losing seasons. Sure, I went searching for something to feel good about when the Brewers made deals at the trade deadline, but for the most part, I made it pretty clear in my columns that I didn’t believe the Brewers were going to play winning baseball. 2015 and 2016 were tough years to be covering this team – it’s hard to be patient during a 162 game season, especially when you’re putting out weekly columns about bad teams.
That pessimism actually extended into the first two months of the 2017 season, when I started the year off saying a Brewers run was unlikely amidst year three of an important rebuild. It wasn’t until Memorial Day Weekend of 2017, when the Brewers began their 53 game run atop the NL Central, that I began to believe the Brewers were going to make a run for the postseason. While some of that optimism was probably misplaced, it’s not like the Brewers fell far short of October baseball – they were eliminated from postseason contention after losing game 161.
This year, however, has been different. Since day one, I have been unwavering in my belief that the Brewers will make the postseason. Is that overly optimistic? I don’t think so.
For one, the Brewers are deep. We talked about the Brewers depth a lot at the start of the season, when we were trying to figure out how Craig Counsell was going to manage the log jam of every day players and not enough spots on the lineup card to put them. That conversation faded quickly as the Brewers worked through a rash of early season injuries to key players. Despite not always playing the most consistent baseball, the Brewers continued to find a way to win while they got healthy.
What we’re seeing now, however, is the Brewers leveraging their still highly ranked minor league system to provide even more depth to this roster when needed, and it’s paying off. Guys like Junior Guerra, Freddy Peralta, and Tyler Saladino, who weren’t on the 25-man roster on Opening Day, are shining as they take advantage of the limited opportunities they’re given. Meanwhile, in AAA Colorado Springs, Jacob Nottingham is hitting a team high .354, while 2nd baseman Nate Orf already has a 23-game hitting streak to his name this season. Brett Phillips has already been up and down multiple times this year and will certainly wear a Brewers uniform again this year, and Eric Sogard and Keon Broxton are both tenured major league hitters that are trying to turn it around at the minor league level.
The point is this: the Brewers have talent at the top of their minor league system. Not only does that provide a valuable safety net when the injury bug bites, but that means they aren’t forced to stick with players at the major league level that aren’t performing. This puts pressure on everyone to be better, which is what a winning organization is all about. Don’t be surprised over the next year and a half to see more players you’ve never heard of throw on a Brewers uniform and start contributing right away…. after all, we’re just one year removed from the Brewers being named the best minor league system in all of baseball.
Depth creates a culture of competition on the clubhouse. When playing time is earned, not given, you start to really see what players are made of. Take Jesus Aguilar for example, whose spot on the Opening Day roster was anything but guaranteed this year, despite being one of the more clutch hitters on the roster last year. I’ve long said that Aguilar deserved a shot at being the Brewers’ every-day first baseman, and with the injury to Eric Thames, he’s finally showing us all what he’s made of. Aguilar leads the team in batting average (.333), OBP (.395), and is tied for second in RBIs (20) and Home Runs (7), despite limited playing time for the first five weeks of the season. Eric Thames is no longer returning to a Brewers roster where his starting spot is a guarantee, and that’s a GOOD THING!
I’m incredibly interested to see how the Brewers handle the return of Ryan Braun from the 10-day DL. Last week, I boldly stated that Braun no longer deserved a spot in the starting lineup. The next day, the Brewers placed him on the 10-day DL with back tightness. I’m not saying the injury to Braun was a good thing, because it wasn’t; you don’t want your 20 million dollar man on the DL. That said, it was interesting to see the bats in this lineup come alive as soon as Counsell didn’t have to find a spot for Braun in the starting lineup. I was never advocating for Braun to ride the bench for the remainder of the season. Rather, I felt the Brewers had better options at that time, and I wanted to see them go in that direction. Clearly there was some validity to my point given how the team played this past week.
The Brewers have depth and they’ve got talent, something they didn’t have in seasons past. But the Brewers also have a not-so-secret weapon that I’ve been hammering all season as the thing that will put them over the top: the best bullpen in baseball.
Statistically, if you look at ERA, the Brewers (2.58) actually have the second best bullpen ERA in all of baseball behind the Diamondbacks (2.52), but they’ve also pitched more innings than every other team that ranks in the top 13 for bullpen ERA in the majors, with the exception of the Padres. That’s an unbelievable accomplishment nearly two months into the season. The Brewers are going to their bullpen often, and they’re seeing results. They’re winning close games, and are a league best 11-5 in one-run contests. Josh Hader is starting to get national attention for his dominance out of the bullpen – some are even mentioning his name in the Cy Young conversation. That’s CRAZY!
When you’ve got a bullpen that is this good, it gives the rest of the team confidence in close games. Take last night’s come from behind win – the Brewers took a tie game into the 8th inning, when Christian Yelich hit a go ahead solo shot to make it 5-4. You can physically see the confidence of this team when they realize they have their choice from Hader, Jeremy Jeffress, and Corey Knebel to try to bring the game to the finish line. It takes the pressure off of everyone, as they know the bullpen is going to be lights out in close games. It simplifies the goal for some of the lesser experienced starting pitchers: just get the game to the 6th inning within striking distance, and the bullpen will bring it home.
The 2018 Brewers are going to make the playoffs. They’ve got the talent, the depth, and the bullpen pitching to put them in a position to play in October. The rest comes down to execution and finding a way to win, something they’ve done plenty of in the first two months of the season.