We’re going to get right into it this week, folks. The Brewers need help.
No, this isn’t an overreaction to a 3-3 week of baseball. It’s also not a panicked response to the fact that the Brewers may (or may not, depending on the Cubs / Cardinals game this evening) end the week in second place in the NL Central.
In fact, I’ve been saying this since Day 1: if the Brewers are going to win the NL Central and make a playoff run, they’re going to need some help.
At the beginning of the season, everyone knew the Brewers would likely need to trade for a starting pitcher to put them over the top. Unfortunately, a combination of injuries and unexpectedly bad play have many calling for them to trade top prospects to bring in help at multiple positions. This week, we’ll cover the three areas of greatest need for the Brewers, and whether or not I believe they’ll make a move.
Starting Pitching
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the Brewers will make a move for a starting pitcher. If you didn’t get a chance to read my in depth analysis of the starting rotation last week, I’ll sum it up here: they’ve been average, but have every reason to remain optimistic. Anecdotally, we saw a lot of that play out this week. The Brewers shut out the Cubs in consecutive days for the first time in franchise history courtesy of near flawless starts from Chase Anderson and Junior Guerra. This weekend, both Anderson and Guerra couldn’t get through the sixth inning, ultimately putting the game out of reach.
Regardless of what happens with Jimmy Nelson, it would be tough to imagine the Brewers winning a pennant without another pitcher. National baseball writer Ken Rosenthal corroborated that sentiment yesterday, stating “rival executives anticipate the Brewers will be aggressive pursuing a starting pitcher”. If Ken Rosenthal tweets it, you know it’s got to be at least somewhat true, right (sarcasm).
The real question in my mind isn’t whether or not the Brewers are going to do it (they are), but how much they’re going to be willing to pay. Jacob deGrom owns a 1.55 ERA in 14 starts for the fading Mets – he’s currently the best starter in baseball by ERA. He’s also got 2 years of club control left after the 2018 season. To put him in a Brewers uniform would cost them dearly – multiple top 5 prospects, almost certainly including top prospect Keston Hiura.
There are other pitchers available: Chris Archer, Michael Fulmer, J.A. Happ, to name a few. The price of each will depend on the order in which they’re traded, and their performance over the next 7 weeks. It’s hard to imagine that anyone worth pursuing will be traded to the Brewers with them being forced to part ways with a top prospect or two. Such is the price of improving your team in a season.
Shortstop
The Brewers have taken hit after hit at the shortstop position as they’ve watched the majority of the major-league ready shortstops in their system go down to injury. First it was Nick Franklin, who was injured back in May in his first game with the Brewers. Then the Crew traded for Tyler Saladino, who was batting .324 in 16 games as a Brewer before nearly snapping his ankle off turning a double play at 2nd base, which came after Saladino had publicly earned the nod as the Brewers starting shortstop. Meanwhile, in AAA, highly touted prospect Mauricio Dubon was raking in Colorado Springs, with an OPS of .922 and 37 hits in 27 games, good for a .343 average. Dubon’s numbers were becoming too good to ignore, and his call up was all but guaranteed, but he tore his ACL in early May, ending his breakout season.
None of this would be an issue if Orlando Arcia wasn’t having the worst season at the plate for qualified MLB shortstops. Despite leading the majors in Defensive WAR at the end of May, Arcia has been an offensive black hole in the bottom of the Brewers lineup, hitting .204 with 45 strikeouts and just 48 total bases. Arcia hasn’t had an extra base hit in a month, and he’s showing no signs of improvement. Unfortunately for the Brewers, the only other shortstop they’ve got is actually playing worse – Eric Sogard has just 10 hits in 81 at bats, good for a .123 average. To put those numbers into perspective, Brent Suter is batting .222.
The Brewers almost don’t have a choice here – they’re going to have to make a move. There has been absolutely no updates from the Brewers about Saladino’s ankle, which is never good news. The name Manny Machado continues to pop up, but I don’t think that’s realistic; if the Brewers are going to part ways with top prospects, they’re going to go hunting for a starting pitcher, not a rental shortstop.
I’m a fan of a different approach here. I’d like to see the Brewers give Jonathan Villar, who is in the middle of a nice bounce back year, back to short stop, then make a move for a middle of the line 2nd baseman and hope that Saladino can come back healthy during the second half. If Villar can hold his own at short stop and the Brewers can bring in another Neil Walker-esque player, it might be enough. Even a .255 hitter would look like Mike Trout compared to what they have going on right now.
Catcher
I don’t think anyone expected the injury of Steven Vogt to hurt the Brewers as bad as it has. The Brewers rank 28th in the majors in runs scored by their catchers, 27th in RBIs with just 18, and 19th in catcher batting average with a dismal .216. Manny Pina, while defensively excellent, has struggled to stay consistent offensively as he was thrust into the starting catcher role. With Vogt in the picture, Pina would have split time almost evenly. Year to date, he’s appeared in 46 of the Brewer’s 71 games.
The Brewers tried to get help for Pina after the Jett Bandy experiment failed. They’re not ready to bring 23 year-old Jacob Nottingham up from the minors despite his stellar .306 batting average in 31 AAA games. So they turned to 38 year-old Erik Kratz, who is hitting the cover off of the ball in a Brewers uniform. Kratz has a .345 batting average with 3 home runs in just 8 games as a Milwaukee Brewers.
So what’s the problem? Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but a significant regression is coming for Kratz, who is a career .210 hitter as a backup catcher. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been amazing, it’s just not fair to expect him to keep this up, especially at his age.
Out of the three positions of need discussed in this article, I think the catcher is the most unlikely position we’ll see an upgrade, but potentially the most exciting. Why, you ask? Two words: Jonathan Lucroy.