The dog days of August are officially upon us, and the Brewers appear to have recovered from their pre- All-Star break slump. Winners of 9 of their last 14, the Crew hasn’t lost a series since the Dodgers came to Miller Park right after the break. At 65-50, they remain just a game behind the NL Central leading Chicago Cubs, and would host the one-game Wild Card if the season ended today. Most importantly, in my opinion, they’re healthy. With the exception of Zach Davies and Taylor Williams, the Brewers are at full strength for the first time all season.
With 47 games remaining in the regular season, the hunt for October is officially on, and staying true to his word, GM David Stearns made a number of deadline deals to try to improve his team’s chances to win a pennant and earn their first World Series berth since my parents signed a mortgage with a 15% interest rate, and felt like they were getting away with murder (1982). I’m going to break down each trade individually before discussing what I believe to be the logic behind the trades and the lineup that the Brewers will field over the next two months.
BREWERS TRADE LHP KODI MEDEIROS AND RHP WILBER PEREZ TO CHICAGO WHITE SOX FOR RHP JOAKIM SORIA
Stearns made his first move the Thursday before the July 31st deadline, trading former first-round pick Kodi Medeiros, their 13th ranked prospect, and 20 year-old pitcher Wilber Perez to the Chicago White Sox. In return, they bring veteran reliever Joakim Soria to Milwaukee to bolster one of the better bullpens in all of baseball.
First, let’s address the Brewers parting ways with Kodi Medeiros. There was a lot of initial Twitter angst directed towards the Brewers for trading a promising young arm that was the 12th overall pick in the 2014 draft. While Medeiros, 22, could still make an impact at the major league level in the next couple of years, the Brewers were at the point where he would need to be added to their 40-man roster this year or he would have been unprotected during the offseason, and could have been added by any team via the Rule 5 draft. If you look at this Brewers team right now, they can reasonably expect to contend for the next 2-4 seasons; Medeiros wouldn’t have contributed during that window. Trading him was less about the Brewers’ thoughts on him as a player, and more about timing.
Now, let’s talk about Soria. The Brewers bolstered their bullpen by renting one of the hottest relievers in the game. Prior to joining the Brewers, Joakim Soria had allowed just two earned runs in his previous 25 appearances (0.74 ERA). He has yet to allow a run in 5 appearances with the Brewers.
What I like most about Soria is that he adds a different look to the the Brewers late inning trio of Knebel, Jeffress, and Hader. All three of those guys rely on the high-heat to get outs, but Soria is known for having one of the better sliders in baseball. That contrast means something when you’re trying to keep opposing hitters off balance. One could argue that the Brewers didn’t need to add to their bullpen; one would be wrong. You can NEVER have too many good pitchers, and if the previous years of postseason baseball have taught us anything, it’s that a solid bullpen is one of the keys to a deep playoff run. I love this move, especially considering Knebel has struggled to return to 2017 form.
BREWERS TRADE OF BRETT PHILLIPS AND RHP JORGE LOPEZ TO KANSAS CITY FOR 3B MIKE MOUSTAKAS
Two days after the Soria trade, Stearns made arguably his biggest move of the deadline by sending Brett Phillips and Jorge Lopez to the Royals for 29-year old 3rd baseman Mike Moustakas. The move shifts Travis Shaw to 2nd base for the first time in his career to allow Moustakas to play 3rd base every day.
First, a moment of silence to mourn the loss of Brett Phillips, possibly the most likable prospect that the Brewers system has seen in my lifetime. That said, there’s no crying in baseball, and dealing Phillips made complete sense. With Yelich and Cain under team control for the next four and five years respectively, there was nowhere for Phillips to go in the Brewers system. Admittedly, I was shocked that the team didn’t part ways with more outfield prospects, or even players like Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana, who are currently playing every day in AAA.
Prior to donning a Brewers uniform for the first time, Moustakas was hitting .239/.309/.468 with 21 doubles and 20 home runs. The general consensus (or hope) is that now that Moustakas is playing for a contender, the batting average and OBP should creep up closer to his career clips of .257 and .324. At the surface, Moustakas is a big bat with plenty of power, something I’ll dive into a bit deeper in the breakdown below.
BREWERS TRADE 2B JONATHAN VILLAR, LUIS ORTIZ, AND JEAN CARMONA TO BALTIMORE FOR 2B/SS JONATHAN SCHOOP
With one-hour remaining before the July 31st deadline, David Stearns made his third and final move of the week, trading away MLB second baseman Jonathan Villar, top-10 prospect Luis Ortiz, and 18-year old rookie leaguer Jean Carmona.
Out of all three trades, this was probably the biggest price the Brewers paid. Luis Ortiz at one point topped out as the Brewers 4th ranked prospect, and was finding some success in AA this year despite working through lingering injuries. Villar was an MLB caliber talent with top tier speed, but he never seemed to recover after turning down a $20 million dollar contract extension after his breakout season in 2015, then bottoming out with the worst year of his career the following season.
In Jonathan Schoop, the Brewers add another infielder with a capacity for hitting home runs. Unfortunately for Schoop (and really, all of us), his Brewers debut has been nothing short of a train wreck. He looks lost at the plate. He has been given plenty of opportunities in key situations, but has just two hits in 21 at bats.
My advice to Brewers fans on this trade: be patient. If Schoop is going to slump hard, I’d rather it happen now than in late September. Schoop was an All-Star second baseman in 2017, and was the reigning AL player of the week before joining the Brewers. He’s got the tools in him to help this team, he’s just got to get out of this current funk. Let’s not forget what a streaky player can do for a team when they get hot.
THE BREAKDOWN
I’ll keep this short and to the point: the Brewers are going all-in on the long ball. Take a look at these hitters: Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Jesus Aguilar, Mike Moustakas, Jonathan Schoop, Eric Thames, and Ryan Braun. All eight of those guys have enough pop in their bats to go long at any point in the game. Collectively, they average 181 home runs in 162 games across their careers, more than one per game.
To those who have been reading the Sunday Cycle for the past five years, I’ve been very vocal about how much I dislike the “swinging for the fences” mentality that is everywhere in baseball. This season, there are more strikeouts than hits for the first time in baseball’s long history. That’s insane, and I hate it. But I’ll also admit that I’m not the one looking at these numbers for a living. It’s not like David Stearns is alone in his thinking that the long ball wins games – it’s pretty much being acknowledged and accepted around the league…
… and it might just work for the Brewers. Need proof? Watch this.
Here’s the thinking: the biggest strength of this ball club is the bullpen. If you stack the lineup with power hitters, you give yourself a chance to score runs in bunches. If the Brewers can keep games within 2-3 runs, they’re going to make opposing bullpens VERY nervous, especially when guys find a way to get on base. Home runs change the complexion of the game- take yesterday’s 9th inning comeback for example. Mike Moustakas leads off the inning with a home run, cutting the Rockie’s lead to 4-2 with nobody out. That becomes a very different ball game when your lineup is stacked with home run hitters. If someone can find a way to get on base (yesterday it was catcher’s interference and a dropped third strike) the guy following you in the lineup will have a couple of swings to tie the ball game. You better believe the opposing pitcher is thinking about that.
Over the next two months, we’re going to see a lot of home runs, and a whole lot of strikeouts. Will it work? Only time will tell. One thing’s for certain, though – the Brewers are going to try to swing their way to a World Series one home run at a time, and if this strategy takes them to an NL Central title, it’s going to be insanely fun to watch.