My, what a difference a week can make.
The sun is shining, the Bucks have rallied back to 2-2 in their playoff series against the Celtics, and your Milwaukee Brewers have won 6 in a row: their longest winning streak since September of 2015.
The overall message of last week’s Sunday Cycle was abundantly clear – don’t panic. April baseball is sloppy, confusing, and unpredictable. It’s almost impossible to see what a team is made of before May – these players have to shake off the winter cobwebs and get back into the routine of playing 6-7 games a week. The good teams find ways to win enough games to keep themselves in the mix in their divisions, while the really bad teams fade quickly and painfully.
The Brewers played two of those teams this week: the Reds and the Marlins. They were able to take care of business by winning two of three against Cincinnati before sweeping Miami. On one hand, I can’t tell you how happy this makes me. The Brewers were 49-38 vs. teams with a losing record last year – winning about 56% of their games vs. losing teams. Ideally, you want to see that number closer to 67%, as it would indicate they’re averaging a series win vs. the bad teams. As a point of comparison, the Cubs went 57-35 last year, a clip of about 62% – eight more wins and three fewer losses, and they won the division by six games.
Watching the Brewers take care of business this week was fantastic. But in the interest of consistency and not forgetting the advice I gave to my readers last week, I’m going to caution Brewers fans against overreacting to this six game winning streak. Wins are great, no doubt about it, but the Reds and Marlins are next-level bad. The Reds just fired their manager less than a month into the season. The Marlins looked so bad that I actually pondered if they were losing on purpose. Unforced and inexplicable mental errors late in the game (one, two, and three) opened the door for the Brewers in back to back games. Credit the Brewers for taking advantage of the mistakes, sure, but there’s some good luck involved there too.
So far, my assessment of this team is that they are right where they need to be, if not ahead of schedule. They’re hot right now, and will get to play two games against another struggling team (the Royals) before heading to Wrigley for a four game set against the Cubs. It would be great to see them keep the momentum through this next week and stick it to the Cubs while they continue their mediocre start, but I don’t see the Cubs sticking around in 4th place in the NL Central for long. Realistically, I’d be happy if the Brewers split the series and got out of there.
I’ve got a couple of other random, unrelated takes on this team that I’m too hungover to string together in a narrative that is witty and makes sense (congrats Kenzie and Cremer, you threw a fantastic wedding). So I’m just going to rattle them off before my 8PM early bedtime.
Jesus Aguilar deserves more playing time at 1st base.
If you haven’t seen it yet, go watch Jesus Aguilar’s walk-off home run from Saturday night. What you won’t see in that clip are the 12 pitches Aguilar battled through during the at bat before ending the game on pitch 13 (after starting the at bat down 0-2). Aguilar is on an absolute tear this year – he’s batting .428 and has come through in clutch situations on multiple occasions for the Brewers. Despite his success, he has about half as many plate appearances as Eric Thames, who has put together an impressive April himself. I’m not suggesting Aguilar should be the every day first base man, unless the Brewers can find a way to trade Thames for a a starting pitcher while his value is high. I am, however, suggesting that those plate appearances start to even out. Aguilar deserves to see more playing time.
I’m losing faith in Brent Suter.
I was very big on Brent Suter last summer, although it was hard not to be, as he won some big games down the stretch against some very hard hitting teams. His quick delivery kept hitters uncomfortable, and made up for the lack of velocity with his fastball (Suter rarely touches 90MPH with his fastball). Suter is also ridiculously likeable – he’s always the first guy celebrating in the dugout after home runs and goofing around during player interviews. I like that stuff – you need guys like that during a 162 game season. That said, being a good clubhouse guy isn’t enough.
2018 has been very different for Suter, and I’m worried that the book is out on him. He’s been getting rocked this year through five starts. He’s 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA, but that ERA should probably be higher. Hitters have been all over him this year; on multiple occasions I’ve watched him get out of innings on consecutive frozen ropes that happen to be hit right at Brewers outfielders. He just doesn’t seem to be fooling anyone, and he’s the weak link in a Brewers starting rotation that is, at best, average. If Suter doesn’t figure it out in his next couple of starts, it might be back to AAA for him… I don’t want him pitching out of the bullpen, either, because…
This may be the best Brewers bullpen I’ve ever seen.
Hey, that kind of flowed- nice!
The Brewers bullpen has now gone 21 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run. They’ve got the 3rd best bullpen ERA in the NL, but they’ve pitched more innings than any NL team other than the Marlins, and they’re doing it without Corey Knebel. Just imagine how deadly they could be if they’re all healthy when Knebel returns. Josh Hader is establishing a reputation as one of the best relievers in all of baseball. Jeremy Jeffress looks lights out – I was so impressed with how he came in to this afternoon’s game with the bases loaded and no outs and retired three in a row to end the inning.
Solid relief pitching is so unbelievably important for teams: it gives them a chance to recover from poor outings from their starters, which the Brewers will have their fair share of this year. It also brings close games to the finish line when the bats aren’t able to break them open. Mark my words – if the Brewers are going to make a playoff run this year, it will be the bullpen that will be credited as the key to the Crew’s success.