The Monday Cycle – May 28, 2018

Memorial Day marks a very special milestone in the baseball season when your favorite team is playing well. Not only are we now mathematically 1/3rd of the way through the regular season, but enough games have been played that teams can’t hide behind luck. By Memorial Day, you are what your record says you are, and the Brewers are good.

They’re second best in the major leagues, if you’re going by wins and losses alone. They’ve done it with a combination of better than expected starting pitching, timely hitting, and a shutdown bullpen that may be the best we’ve ever seen in Milwaukee. Despite struggling to find their offensive groove early on, they still found a way to win games. Now that the bats are red hot, we’re starting to see the type of production we expected from this lineup before the season began – and the Brewers look like a real force to be reckoned with. They’ve won their past five series, four against teams with winning records. They’ve won seven of their last eight, including their last four in a row, and lead the NL Central by 4.5 games.

Things are really really good right now, but as I cautioned my readers a month ago when the Brewers weren’t scoring, we have to stay patient. While no team in baseball is as hot as the Brewers right now, we have to be realistic. The Crew is on pace to win 103 games – that’s probably not likely. There’s going to be a regression at some point, and it’s on Craig Counsell to continue managing his clubhouse and keep things positive when the Brewers drop a couple of games in a row.

You can break the MLB season into three distinct time periods. First is early season baseball: it’s cold, it’s ugly, but as I said so often these past nine weeks- it’s important to find ways to win. The season concludes with the hunt for October: the two month stretch of games when fans of winning teams hang on every pitch. Then there’s the middle, which features the All Star Break (which a couple of Brewers should get a chance to play in this year), as well as the August 1st trade deadline. While teams spend April and May figuring out who they are, their front offices spend June and July weighing the long term effects of trading away future talent for high impact players.

These next two months are important. The makeup of this team is going to change. There’s going to be drama, injuries, trade rumors, a lot of winning, and probably a couple of slumps, as well.

If they’re going to keep on winning at this clip, the Brewers are going to need players all over this roster to step up. It can’t just be Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jesus Aguilar for six straight months. Here are four unlikely candidates for the Brewers mid-season MVP awards.

Zach Davies

Davies has always been a slow starter. He owns a career 5.88 ERA in March / April and 4.29 ERA in May, compared to a 3.58 ERA in June and 2.62 ERA in July. 2018 has been no different for Davies, who is 2-4 with a 4.74 ERA and has been battling a right rotator cuff injury that sent him to the 10-day DL. Somewhat surprisingly, it hasn’t been a command issue – Davies is averaging about two walks per start. He’s just not hitting the outside of the strike zone, and is on pace to strike out just 81 batters this year, well below his career average of 142 K’s per 162 games.

I have always credited Davies for his mental toughness. No matter what type of situation he finds himself in, he always appears calm and collected. While he’s had his fair share of bad starts, he rarely implodes to the point where the game is over before the late tailgating crew stumbles into the game. He also fields his position incredibly well (Davies was a finalist for a gold glove last year), something I’ve always appreciated from a pitcher. I’ve got faith that Davies will turn it around, as he so often does in June and July.

Ryan Braun

I have been VERY hard on Ryan Braun this year. Despite being single-handedly responsible for two of the Brewers early wins, Braun has been nothing short of terrible this year, batting .228 with a .285 OBP, which would be his lowest OBP by 39 points if the season ended today.

The Brewers did something very “un-Brewers-like” this past week. They sent Orlando Arcia down to AAA Colorado Springs to try to fix some of his struggles at the plate. It’s a move I 100% endorse and celebrate, as I think it’s the right message to send to this team at the right time: “Hey, we’re good. You have to be good to play here.” (probably said far more gracefully, but you get the point).

Nothing is given, everything is earned in winning ball clubs. It’s the culture of competition and accountability that Craig Counsell preached about building on day one of his tenure as manager, and it’s finally here. Arcia is beloved in that clubhouse, and he owns the second highest defensive WAR in the major leagues. But he’s hitting .194, has struck out 34 times, and has grounded into a team high seven double plays. He’s not playing well enough to earn his playing time.

The Brewers need to take that same approach with Ryan Braun, despite his status as our franchise player, and I think you finally saw some of that today when Counsell FINALLY moved Braun into the five-spot in the lineup. The result? Braun went 3 for 3 with a walk and a clutch RBI.

The Brewers are better when Ryan Braun is playing well and in the lineup. I never suggested for a second that they give up on him, rather that they force him to sit and re-earn his starting spot just like they should with every other player in this lineup who’s not producing. Forcing Braun to fight for his playing time will bring out the best in him, and hopefully today was just a glimpse of what is yet to come as we get into the summer months.

Dan Jennings and Matt Albers

Because Jeremy Jeffress and Josh Hader have gotten so much (well deserved) national attention for their dominance out of the bullpen, Jennings and Albers have kind of slid under the radar. Both have been outstanding thus far, but you wouldn’t really know it because they’re often tasked with pitching in the earlier innings. Jennings has appeared in 25 games and owns a 2.19 ERA with 17 strikeouts. He’s walked seven, compared to eight from Jeffress and ten from Hader. Albers has been even better, owning a 1.17 ERA in two appearances, striking out 18 and walking just four.

There are two reasons why I think both Albers and Jennings could be play critical roles over the next couple of months. First, it is my strong belief that Jeremy Jeffress or Josh Hader (or dare I say it, both) are going to regress at some point this season. Jeffress hasn’t allowed a run in his last 25 appearances, tying a Brewers franchise record; that streak has to end at some point. When it does, the Brewers may need to look elsewhere in their bullpen in late inning situations. The other point to consider is longevity. The Brewers need Hader and Jeffress (and all of their players, for that matter) at their best in September and October, not April and May. By turning to guys like Jennings and Albers and not forcing themselves to overuse Hader and JJ, they’re going to increase the odds of this bullpen maintaining their dominance for the entire season.